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Jun. 5th, 2009
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Jun. 5th, 2009 02:22 pmЗима явно была холодной - по городу стайками объевшихся гуппи порхают беременные женщины.
(no subject)
Jun. 5th, 2009 07:09 pmIran is experiencing what may be one of the most dramatic demographic shifts in human history. Thirty years ago, after the shah had been driven into exile and the Islamic Republic was being established, the fertility rate was 6.5. By the turn of the century, it had dropped to 2.2. Today, at 1.7, it has collapsed to European levels. The implications are profound for the politics and power games of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, putting into doubt Iran’s dreams of being the regional superpower and altering the tense dynamics between the Sunni and Shiite wings of Islam. Equally important are the implications for the economic future of Iran, which by midcentury may have consumed all of its oil and will confront the challenge of organizing a society with few people of working age and many pensioners.
Вообще много интересного: утверждается, что в Европе дела идут далеко не так плохо, как принято считать - в основном за счёт высокого уровня медицинского обслуживания. Европейские женщины спокойно рожают в таком возрасте, в каком женщины исламских и пост-советских стран шансов на нормальные роды практически не имеют.
Про Россию:
In Russia, the effects of declining fertility are amplified by a phenomenon so extreme that it has given rise to an ominous new term— hypermortality. As a result of the rampant spread of maladies such as HIV/AIDS and alcoholism and the deterioration of the Russian health care system, says a 2008 report by the UN Development Program, “mortality in Russia is 3–5 times higher for men and twice as high for women” than in other countries at a comparable stage of development. The report—which echoes earlier findings by demographers such as the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Murray Feshbach— predicts that within little more than a decade the working-age population will be shrinking by up to one million people annually. Russia is suffering a demographic decline on a scale that is normally associated with the effects of a major war.
Вообще много интересного: утверждается, что в Европе дела идут далеко не так плохо, как принято считать - в основном за счёт высокого уровня медицинского обслуживания. Европейские женщины спокойно рожают в таком возрасте, в каком женщины исламских и пост-советских стран шансов на нормальные роды практически не имеют.
Про Россию:
In Russia, the effects of declining fertility are amplified by a phenomenon so extreme that it has given rise to an ominous new term— hypermortality. As a result of the rampant spread of maladies such as HIV/AIDS and alcoholism and the deterioration of the Russian health care system, says a 2008 report by the UN Development Program, “mortality in Russia is 3–5 times higher for men and twice as high for women” than in other countries at a comparable stage of development. The report—which echoes earlier findings by demographers such as the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Murray Feshbach— predicts that within little more than a decade the working-age population will be shrinking by up to one million people annually. Russia is suffering a demographic decline on a scale that is normally associated with the effects of a major war.