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May. 17th, 2009 07:01 pmНашёл интересную информацию:
According to the National Statistical Service (NSS), at the national level, the average of the
official government TFRs for calendar years 1998 through 2000 is 1.2 children per woman (among
women age 15-39). The ADHS rate of 1.7 (among women age 15-39) is significantly higher. To
examine the differences between the ADHS and NSS figures, fertility trends can be compared.
Figure 4.2 shows that the rates for the 1989-1991 period are similar for the ADHS and NSS data
(2.8 and 2.6, respectively). During the 1992-1995 period, however, a significant difference between
rates are observed. Whereas there was little change in the ADHS rate, the NSS rates declined 23
percent, from 2.6 to 2.0. In later periods, there is steady decline in both the ADHS and NSS rates.
Overall, during the decade preceding the survey, both the ADHS and the NSS total fertility rates
declined by more than one child per woman. The ADHS rate declined by 39 percent, while the NSS
rate declined by more than half (54 percent).
When examining the differences between the ADHS and NSS rates, a few points regarding
the comparability of the data sources should be kept in mind. First, the rates are based on different
populations. The ADHS rates are based on the female population resident in Armenia at the time
of the survey. The NSS rates, on the other hand, are based on population projections from previous
censuses and do not take into account migration. The difference between the resident population
and the official population is likely to be significant. Although there is currently little concrete
information about the size of the resident population, during the 1992-1999 period, there was a net
population loss of at least 670,000 and quite possibly more (MOSSRA 2000). It should be stressed
that these data do not encompass the whole period of this fertility comparison. Nonetheless, it is
possible to conclude, using this conservative estimate, that the government estimate of the official
population size (used to calculate the government TFR) is at least 20 percent larger than the
available population.
А? чудненько получается: армян не 3 миллиона с хвостом - а 2.5 млн. И неизбежно продолжает уменьшаться - умирает больше, чем рождается, пусть затухающая, но эмиграция (это, видимо, тоже показатель - уехали все, кто могли), да и наши добавляют им жмуриков.
Кстати - это те самые недостающие 0.5 млн, которых хватило Саркисяну для победы на выборах.
Самое же забавное в том, что выходит - армянское правительство в курсе своих демографических проблем. И все вопли о "заселении Карабаха" - блеф. Если никто не едет в "Армению" - кто поедет в Карабах, где в любой момент можно словить пулю - за отсутствие азербайджанской визы?
According to the National Statistical Service (NSS), at the national level, the average of the
official government TFRs for calendar years 1998 through 2000 is 1.2 children per woman (among
women age 15-39). The ADHS rate of 1.7 (among women age 15-39) is significantly higher. To
examine the differences between the ADHS and NSS figures, fertility trends can be compared.
Figure 4.2 shows that the rates for the 1989-1991 period are similar for the ADHS and NSS data
(2.8 and 2.6, respectively). During the 1992-1995 period, however, a significant difference between
rates are observed. Whereas there was little change in the ADHS rate, the NSS rates declined 23
percent, from 2.6 to 2.0. In later periods, there is steady decline in both the ADHS and NSS rates.
Overall, during the decade preceding the survey, both the ADHS and the NSS total fertility rates
declined by more than one child per woman. The ADHS rate declined by 39 percent, while the NSS
rate declined by more than half (54 percent).
When examining the differences between the ADHS and NSS rates, a few points regarding
the comparability of the data sources should be kept in mind. First, the rates are based on different
populations. The ADHS rates are based on the female population resident in Armenia at the time
of the survey. The NSS rates, on the other hand, are based on population projections from previous
censuses and do not take into account migration. The difference between the resident population
and the official population is likely to be significant. Although there is currently little concrete
information about the size of the resident population, during the 1992-1999 period, there was a net
population loss of at least 670,000 and quite possibly more (MOSSRA 2000). It should be stressed
that these data do not encompass the whole period of this fertility comparison. Nonetheless, it is
possible to conclude, using this conservative estimate, that the government estimate of the official
population size (used to calculate the government TFR) is at least 20 percent larger than the
available population.
А? чудненько получается: армян не 3 миллиона с хвостом - а 2.5 млн. И неизбежно продолжает уменьшаться - умирает больше, чем рождается, пусть затухающая, но эмиграция (это, видимо, тоже показатель - уехали все, кто могли), да и наши добавляют им жмуриков.
Кстати - это те самые недостающие 0.5 млн, которых хватило Саркисяну для победы на выборах.
Самое же забавное в том, что выходит - армянское правительство в курсе своих демографических проблем. И все вопли о "заселении Карабаха" - блеф. Если никто не едет в "Армению" - кто поедет в Карабах, где в любой момент можно словить пулю - за отсутствие азербайджанской визы?
